As a brief introduction, I'm Kyle...nice to meet you! I've been betting on sports since my father started taking me to Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore (home of the Preakness) in the late 1980s. Over the years, I've tried for just over 50% of my bets. While this sounds terrible, it's actually decent for an amateur (for context, pro gamblers aim for about a 55% win rate or better... here's a good explanation:
If you're new to sports gambling or need a refresher, I'll give my picks as either "moneyline" or "spread" bets. Moneyline bets are posted as a +/- figure, with + bets less likely and - bets more likely to hit. For example, a +250 money line bet would win $250 plus the original $100 back for a $100 bet. Spread bets describe a handicap given to the underdog and favorite. For example, a theoretical Texans-Dolphins matchup with the Texans a heavy favorite might be posted as Texans -10.5, Dolphins +10.5. That means if you choose the Texans spread, they have to win by 11 points or more for your bet to hit. Conversely, if you pick the Dolphins +10.5, they could either win outright or lose by as many as 10 points for your bet to hit. Here's a good primer on these styles of betting: https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/moneyline-vs-point-spread-betting
There is a ton of "best bets" advice out there, but this will be a little different in that each pick I make must be pro-Texans. If you have any suggestions for types of bets that you'd like to see or other feedback, drop me an email and I'm happy to discuss.
I'm going to start this week with season player prop bets (betting on a player's performance across the whole season). On 9/7 I'll cover team futures (team performance across the season). Then on 9/11 I'll post Week 1's matchup bets. I'll post weekly on Wednesdays focusing on that week's Texans matchup.
Season Player Props
I like three player bets for the season, all on the offense. As usual, Texans players are underrated, which is frustrating for fans, but provides an opportunity for bettors (lemons into lemonade!).
Deshaun Watson: Over 4,050.5 passing yards (-125). In 2018, Watson passed for 4,165 yards in a full 16 games. Last year, he would have easily cleared 4,050 if he had played all 16 games. Bet: $100 to return $180 (win $80 plus original $100 bet back)
Brandin Cooks: Over 849.5 receiving yards (-110). Despite the fact that the receiving corps looks to be generally upgraded, it's a good bet Cooks becomes Watson's top target this year. In years where he's been the first option, he's cleared 849 by 200-300 yards. Bet: $100 to return $190.90
David Johnson: NFL Rushing Leader (+4000) Much of Watson's and Cooks' success will key off a balanced offense facilitated by David Johnson. I agree with the Texans Unfiltered squad that Johnson has potential to have a monster come-back year. Unfortunately, the big sports books are lame and aren't posting rushing or touchdown over/unders for Johnson. But, they are giving odds for Rushing Leader, which are juicy at +4000, and is definitely worth a flyer. Bet: $20 to return $820