Kyle goes through Week 2 bets you will want to lock in before kickoff as the Houston Texans face the Baltimore Ravens, and we recap some of our prior bets from Week 1.
Houston Texans: Week 2 Bets versus Baltimore Ravens
Week 1 recap
Let's begin this week by addressing the elephant in the room with the Houston Texans (I was hoping we wouldn't have to have this little chat after just one week, but alas): Both the Texans and our Week 1 picks stunk up the joint! I'll let the TexansUnfiltered guys break down the Texans' loss, but let's watch some game tape on my picks.
The most obvious place to start is the Texans +9 bust (Texans to win outright, or lose by as many as 8 points). Even if you had Houston at +10.5, where the line started in August, this bet whiffed as the Texans lost 34-20 to the Chiefs last week. This miss was amplified by the fact that our parlays were built on this bet as well.
The rationale was that the Texans' stable offensive line and quarterback Deshaun Watson could keep it close against the Super Bowl champs. And, even though the Texans were a late touchdown away from a back door cover (a late score that covers the bet's point spread, but is usually meaningless for the game's outcome), the Texans were playing from behind virtually the entire game. In retrospect, the Chiefs played like a team two touchdowns superior to the Texans.
We had that parlayed (two or more bets to win) with the game total under 54.5 points. That bet hit but was as close as it could be with the total score at 54. In fact, a buddy of mine texted me right after the game and said that he was sorry he ignored my advice but was glad the over hit. The thing is, he had the over at 53.5 at another bookie, and 54 hit the OVER there. It just goes to show you how sophisticated Vegas is in setting these lines, given they were right on the button (and another reminder that it's foolish to think you'll be anywhere near 100% on your picks).
We don't even need to talk about the Texans' Moneyline (for the Texans to win outright), which really never had a chance.
Looking forward to Week 2
For this week, let's shake off the mud in our face and get back to basics. I'd advise staying away from the Houston Texans spread, which is hovering around +6.5, +7 at the time of this writing.
While the Texans are at home this week against the Baltimore Ravens, I have no confidence that the standard -3 point advantage Vegas usually gives to the home team is actually warranted this season with the pandemic (oddsmakers usually give a 3 point advantage to the home team in the NFL).
This week there will be no fans in attendance at NRG Stadium in Houston. So, factoring in that the +7 is likely to be more of a true +7 instead of a more usual +10 adjusted down by 3 points for the home team, makes +7 even less attractive. So, again, I'm staying away. Instead, bet the Over 51.5 (-110)
Just like last week against Patrick Mahomes, this week features two top-5 playmaking QBs in Houston's Deshaun Watson and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson. But, unlike last week where I advised the under 54.5 almost entirely because Thursday games have a tendency to go under, this week we're playing on Sunday and the likelihood of a shootout befitting these two teams' offenses is high.
Texans Unfiltered's James Carlson pointed out in the podcast this week that Baltimore's defense is much better than the Chiefs, but all the betting sharps believe offenses have a distinct advantage over defenses early in the season this year with no pre-season, so that's not a deal-breaker for me.
Bet: $50 to pay $95.45 (win $45.45 plus original $50 bet back)