The Houston Texans (4-7) are riding a two-win streak as they host the Indianapolis Colts (7-4) for their first matchup of the 2020 regular season.
Houston Texans: Week 13 Bets versus Indianapolis Colts
Kyle Rose
Houston Texans Week 13 line: +2.5:
- The line started at Houston Texans +3.5, which was probably already giving Houston too much credit for their 41-25 dismantling of the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
- Not to diminish Houston's two-game winning streak, but this is a winless team against teams with a winning record with 11 games in the books.
- In fact, in the six games against teams with winning records, Houston has lost by an average of 10.3 pts. The closest was the 7-10 loss at Cleveland, which was played in awful Ohio weather.
- Can Houston pull out a win against the 7-4 Colts? Possibly, if they can sustain the recent strength seen on both offense and defense.
- Deshaun Watson continues to set the league on fire with his individual performances, but the defense also has to bring their best foot forward.
- However, Indianapolis is 4-1 against teams with losing records this season, winning by an average of 12.6 pts, and that includes the 7 pt week 1 loss against Jacksonville Jaguars, which increasingly looks like an aberration that can probably be attributed to the lack of a preseason.
- Assuming Indy gets Jonathan Taylor back at RB for Sunday (he has not tested positive for COVID-19, making it possible to return against Houston), this is a tough spread for Houston despite being at home and having two decent showings against Detroit and the New England Patriots.
- The defense has taken a hit with Bradley Roby being suspended for the 6 games due to PEDs. This defense will need another herculean game from J.J. Watt and the rest of the front seven to compensate for their loss in the secondary.
- Recommendation: avoid a spread bet this week. If you really want to bet on the Texans, take a look at an alternate spread of +7.5.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: O/U 53.5
- Season to date, Houston Texans has averaged 24.4 pts/game, but as we have noted in recent weeks, they have scored more in the post-Bill O'Brien era, averaging 26.9 pts/game (which includes the dismal 7 pt showing in Cleveland, which was certainly impacted by weather).
- Indy has averaged 27.5 pts/game, which would total 54.4 pts if we use the post-O'Brien average.
- Recommendation: Take the over