The Houston Texans are back at NRG Stadium to face the New England Patriots after a two-week road trip where they went 1-1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cleveland Browns.
Houston Texans: Week 11 Bets versus New England Patriots
Week 10 Recap
The Houston Texans dropped a tough loss on the road against the Cleveland Browns as they kept it close until the end. That seems to be the storyline for a Houston team that has struggled to make the last push to take the victory in the win-loss column. For this upcoming game, some good news is that the New England Patriots are in a rut of their own and hold a losing record through the first 9 games of the season. Houston has a real opportunity to get their second victory in their last three games.
Thoughts about Houston Texans Week 11 Matchup
Houston Texans +2.5: This line actually started at Houston -3 on Sunday, before the New England Patriots upset the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.
The Patriots have been shaky this year but are now 4-5 after winning their last two games, so this line makes more sense than the original -3 for Houston. That said, the only real bad loss by the Patriots was the 33-6 blowout by the San Francisco 49ers, so even this line may be a stretch for a 2-7 Houston team.
Yes, there is a chance that Houston could beat the +2.5 pt spread at home, but do I really think there is better than a 52% chance of it happening (the probability implied by the odds of -110)? Probably not. Instead, I'd feel more comfortable taking Houston at an alternate spread of +7.5 at -290 (74% implied probability).
Houston’s games have averaged 50.2 total pts this season, and NE games have averaged 44.4 this season (This moved up from an original 46.5).
Averaging the two numbers results in 47.3, slightly below the o/u line. It is worth noting that these season-to-date averages have been driven by the scores of the opponents for both Hou and NE as Deshaun Watson and the offense has only averaged 22.2 pts/game compared to New England's 21.0 pts/game.
Additionally, Houston is 1-3 at home this year against o/u lines. This is not a new trend for Hou. The last time they were >0.500 against o/u lines at Home for a season was in 2013.
Recommend taking the under and parlaying with the alternate spread.