The Houston Texans (0-4) are hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at NRG Stadium as they look to turn their season around with Bill O'Brien no longer in the picture.
Houston Texans: Week 5 Bets versus Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 5 opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Hello, and welcome to Week 5 as the Houston Texans face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Texans Bets!
There's no use on dwelling on the team's 0-4 start or another largely handcuffed performance by Deshaun Watson (which is a little crazy to say given he had 300 yards passing, but 9 yards on the ground). This also isn't the place to litigate the sacked (pun intended) head coach and general manager.
But, we can celebrate a second straight week with a winner. Last week we gave out the under 54.5 points, and the game total was 54. I know some of you got it at 54, which pushed, which always sucks. But, I'm going to mark it down as a win anyway because, you know, we all need some win right now.
This week, we're eyeing two bets. First, the OVER 54 POINTS.
The average total for Texans games is 51.5; the average total for Jaguar games is 53. This line started at 47.5 but has shot up, mostly since both teams have been so weak on defense all season long, allowing 31.5 (Hou) and 29.3 (Jax) pts on average. The over here probably depends on Houston's ability to deliver a strong offensive performance finally, but we're willing to give them the benefit of the doubt at home against Jacksonville.
Couple that with the "bounce" that teams usually have in the week following their head coach's firing and the excellent point that James made on the podcast about the offensive coordinator essentially interviewing for a head coaching job next season, and all roads lead to the over.
The second bet is the Houston Moneyline (to win outright with no points). I considered taking the points at Texans -6 (favorites, to win by 7 or more), but that's a tough call.
Houston hasn't shown the ability to stop their opponents from scoring, so if Houston wins (which we think they can), it likely ends up being a close game. I don't trust them right now, so I'm staying away from the spread and retreating to the Moneyline.
I recommend that you put half of your weekly allowance on the over 54 and the other half on a parlay of the Texans Moneyline and the over 54.
If you wager $25 on each of those bets, and both win, you'll wind up with about $120 (including your original $50) coming back. If just the over hits, you'll about break even. And if neither hits, well... let's say you'll likely be more upset at the team than you are at losing $50.